Kenya is bracing for economic turbulence as the expiration date for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) looms. The trade agreement, which has provided duty-free access to U.S. markets for eligible African countries since 2000, is set to expire in September 2025—potentially putting thousands of Kenyan jobs on the line.
One of the largest employers affected is United Aryan, a major garment factory based in Nairobi. The factory, which exports approximately 8 million pairs of jeans annually to the United States, employs around 16,000 people. Without AGOA, these products would be subject to tariffs, threatening the factory’s competitiveness and, in turn, its workers’ livelihoods.
“AGOA has been a lifeline,” said Pankaj Bedi, owner of United Aryan. “If it’s not renewed, we won’t be able to compete with countries that have cheaper labor or better trade terms. That’s a death blow to us.”
AGOA’s impact on Kenya has been substantial, with an estimated 66,000 jobs created in the country over the past two decades. The agreement has also fostered broader economic growth in manufacturing and exports. But its potential lapse now casts a long shadow over these gains.
Economists warn that if the deal is not extended, Kenya’s export sector could face serious disruption. “Tariffs will make our goods more expensive in the U.S. market, shrinking demand and pushing factories to cut jobs,” said a Nairobi-based trade analyst.
The uncertainty also poses a diplomatic challenge. The U.S. administration, under President Donald Trump, has placed greater focus on revitalizing domestic manufacturing, which may make the renewal of such trade deals less of a priority. This has left African nations scrambling to ensure their interests are not sidelined.
While some African leaders have criticized AGOA for being overly conditional and unevenly beneficial, Kenyan experts argue that predictable, long-term trade policies are essential for continued growth and investment.
Alternatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offer potential relief, but they remain hampered by issues such as inadequate infrastructure and institutional fragility. For now, AGOA remains the most immediate and impactful option for sustaining industrial jobs linked to the U.S. market.
For workers like Valdes Samora, who supports her family of five on her income from United Aryan, the threat of job loss is deeply personal. “We’ve built our lives around this job,” she said. “Losing it would mean starting from zero.”
With just a few months remaining before AGOA’s expiration, the future of trade relations between the U.S. and Kenya hangs in the balance. What happens next will shape not only the economic trajectory of thousands of families, but also the broader contours of U.S.-Africa economic cooperation.
